The US Federal Reserve did not wait until the regular meeting in the middle of this week, but already acted on Sunday. The key interest rate will be cut by 100 basis points down to practically zero. Bond purchases will be scaled up again substantially and a whole series of short-term measures are being taken to improve liquidity in the banking system. The message could not have been clearer: The Fed is throwing everything into the balance.
However, this extraordinary move has not helped to calm financial markets. Quite the contrary has been the case. The Asian stock markets have closed in the red and the European stock markets have opened in deep red. The developments surrounding the coronavirus are obviously too dramatic for the Fed measures alone to calm the situation.
It is to be feared that the uncertainty in society and thus also in the financial markets will continue in the coming days. The experts' simulations all indicate that the number of cases of people infected with the coronavirus in Europe and the United States will continue to rise before the isolation measures take effect.
It therefore remains probable that, as in the past few days, glimmers of hope on the financial markets will suddenly be replaced by disillusionment and vice versa. Larger price swings will therefore proba-bly remain the order of the day for the time being. In view of this, our recommendations still apply:
At this point we would like to emphasize the diversification aspect. Many investment classes have cor-rected significantly in recent weeks. First and foremost, the stock markets, some of which have already lost more than 30% since mid-February. But not all asset classes have corrected to the same extent. Some, such as government bonds or gold, have even been able to post gains since the beginning of the year. So, if the portfolio is broadened, the impact of individual investments in the portfolio can be cushioned to a certain extent. Since the beginning of the year, the following chart shows the perfor-mance of the asset classes we include in our mixed mandates. By the end of last week, the VP Bank Strategy Fund CHF Balanced, which contains 40 % equities in its strategic investment allocation, rec-orded a decline of 10.8 % since the beginning of the year.
Die Korrektur an den Aktienmärkten macht sich hier natürlich negativ bemerkbar. Immerhin hat die Diversifikation durch die Berücksichtigung der anderen Anlageklassen den Rückgang abfedern können. Nun stellt sich die Frage, ob damit das Schlimmste bereits ausgestanden ist. Dazu haben wir uns die grössten Korrekturen der letzten 20 Jahre angeschaut. Nachfolgende Abbildung zeigt die grössten zwischenzeitlichen Wertverluste für die dem Strategiefonds CHF Balanced zugrundeliegende strategische Anlageallokation. Der grösste Rückgang wurde dabei wenig überraschend im Zuge der Finanzkrise mit rund 28 % verzeichnet. Die Vergangenheit hat aber auch gezeigt, dass es wichtig ist, mit fortschreitender Dauer einer Korrektur nicht auszusteigen, sondern investiert zu bleiben. Dadurch kann man von der darauffolgenden Erholung profitieren und die erlittenen Wertverluste schnellst-möglich wieder wettmachen.
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