VP Bank Corona-Crisis barometer reaches initial level

Last updated: 05 July 2021

The VP Bank-Corona Crisis Barometer has now returned to its pre-crisis level. This also fits in with the development of US GDP, which also returned to pre-crisis levels in the recently completed second quarter. The official confirmation of this will come with the publication of second quarter GDP on July 29. 

Since our last measurement, US air traffic in particular has again recovered noticeably. In the run-up to Independence Day (July 4), passenger traffic at U.S. airports was even above the initial level. To be sure, U.S. air traffic will continue to be subject to significant fluctuations. A sustained return to pre-crisis levels will take some time. Intercontinental flights, in particular, will continue to lag behind pre-crisis levels for some time due to global viral activity.

It is also apparent that restaurant visits are subject to strong fluctuations. Fear of the Corona mutations still prevails. In addition, some may have become accustomed to takeaway food. But home-prepared food may also have gained in importance in the long term. So, while individual sectors of the economy remain subject to major fluctuations, it is unmistakable that other sectors are buzzing. Global industry is looking ahead to brilliant new orders. Only industrial production is not yet able to benefit fully from this due to material shortages. Nevertheless, the industrialized nations are shaking off the ballast of the Corona era. The best expression of this is the demand for electricity as measured by us, which is now also back above the initial level.

When activity levels return to 100%, we also discontinue the VP Bank Corona crisis barometer. The latter has provided a reliable service especially during the dicey period of the Corona waves. It provided a neutral, data-based view of actual economic events - free of any emotion. It thus provided a valuable service and was a reliable compass during the Corona crisis.

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On the barometer: The measures taken to control the spread of the coronavirus have been drastic. The global economy is severely impaired, resulting in an unprecedented drop in gross
domestic product (GDP). The question is now, how fast the economy will rebound if the restrictions are lifted.

The VP Bank Corona Crisis Barometer tracks how well the economy is recovering.