Company Update
Strong Buy
Strong buy

Disney 4Q profit tops estimates on better subscribers

Expect to grow free cash flow in fiscal 2024 significantly, approaching levels last seen pre-pandemic.
09. November 2023
Analyst:

Disney posted fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts’ expectations and said it will cut an additional USD 2 billion in expenses. The results featured better-than-expected adjusted earnings and a strong read on subscribers for its streaming-video service. Disney delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2023 despite industry headwinds, with lower streaming losses of USD 2.6 billion amid a commitment to reaching profit in 4Q24. Disney outperformed expectations on earnings per share, operating income, cash flow, and Disney+ subscribers as management moves aggressively to slash costs and restructure the company.

Disney’s numbers were solid overall, although revenues came in lighter than expected, largely due to the continued deterioration of the linear TV business. The company posted revenue of USD 21.24 billion in the fourth quarter, up + 5.4% YoY, missing Street view by 0.9%. Adjusted earning of USD 0.82 per share raises 173% YoY, beating analyst expectations by 19.2%. Disney+ subscribers of 150.2 million beat estimate of 147.07 million. The experiences segment's revenue increased 13% to USD 8.16 billion, as domestic and international parks and experiences operations grew 7% and 55%, respectively.

Total segment operating income improved 86% YoY to USD 2.98 billion, beating consensus by 11.2%.

Valuation:         

Disney currently trades at 18.1x P/E 24E, below its 5-year historical average of 25.8x and below the MSCI USA Media Index (18.8x). On a 2024E EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 11.4x, below its 5-year average of 12.2x and above the MSCI USA Media Index (10x). On a P/S 24E basis, the stock is trading at 1.7x, below its 5-year average of 2.7x and below the MSCI USA Media Index (3.6x).                                                                        

We confirm our strong buy recommendation.

Management Outlook

Management expects to grow free cash flow in fiscal 2024 significantly versus fiscal 2023, approaching levels last seen pre-pandemic. Disney continues to expect that its combined streaming businesses will reach profitability in Q4 of FY24, although progress may not look linear from quarter to quarter. Disney continues to aggressively manage the cost base, and has increased its annualized efficiency target to USD 7.5 billion, versus USD 5.5 billion previously.

Financials

Fiscal year 2025*Fiscal year 2026*Fiscal year 2027*
Revenue in mn
102,642--
Revenue growth (%)
4.4--
Net income in mn
11,307--
Adjusted EPS
6.20--
Profit margin (%)
11.0--
Return on equity (%)
9.6--
P/E ratio (x)
13.6--
P/S ratio (x)
1.5--
P/B ratio (x)
1.3--
Dividend Yield (%)
1.4--
in reporting currency*Bloomberg consensus estimates

Stock and Price Data

CountryMarket Cap in bnISINSectorPriceSmall Cap
United States of AmericaUSD 154.6US2546871060Comm. ServicesUSD 84.50No

Performance

Created with Highcharts 6.1.1Share Price (USD)MSCI USA (NR) (rebased)Jan '21May '21Sep '21Jan '22May '22Sep '22Jan '23May '23Sep '2375.0100.0125.0150.0175.0200.0225.0

Performance in %

Since inception*YTDLast 6 months
-18.3-2.7-17.3
*Inception date: 20.01.2023

VP Bank Sustainability Score

Sustainability_Score_icon

Average

VP Bank Sustainability Score
Sustainability_Score_icon

4

ESG Score
Sustainability_Score_icon

3

ESG-Momentum
Sustainability_Score_icon

1

Business Practices
Sustainability_Score_icon

3

Business Activities
Sustainability_Score_icon

3

SDG/Impact Exposure
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