http://www.vpbank.com/htm/302/en/Homepage.htmThe VP Bank Group is an internationally active, Liechtenstein-based private bank. With more than a half-century of experience in private banking, we are experts in all aspects of asset management and investment advice.enCopyright 2009 Verwaltungs- und Privat Bank AGThu, 23 Feb 2012 06:02:00 +0200http://www.vpbank.com/data/docs/download/2287/en/logo-bank.gifhttp://www.vpbank.com/htm/302/en/Homepage.htmExports fell by 0.5% (Y-Y). Imports fell by 15.3% (Y-Y). Chinese new year, which was in January, had a negative impact on January`s trade balance. Therefore, the fall in exports should not be over-interpreted. Nevertheless, the significant fall of imports is eye-popping. This underscores the falling import dynamic, which have been already seen in the last couple of months. Today`s published figures make the lower domestic dynamic more obvious. Therefore, domestic demand will not be able to compensate a drop in exports. The first half of 2012 will be a meager one.Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0200The unexpectedly increase in China`s CPI will hamper a monetary easing in the short term. For drawing any conclusions, the People Bank of China will wait for inflation datas of the next months. In our point of view, the increase in the inflation rate should not be interpreted as a first signal for another wave of price increases. Prices for pork, grains and oilseeds are quite low in comparison to last year. The base effect will push down CPI figures below 4% in the upcoming months. The overheated Chinese real estate market is showing signs of relaxing price pressure. Therefore, the People Bank of China can still take things nice and slow. The door for a monetary easing will be open in the next couple of months - despite the recent increase.Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0200 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 15:15:00 +0200 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:15:00 +0200 Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:15:00 +0200The Chinese Industrial Production fell in November year on year from 13.2% to 12.4%. The Chinese Retail Sales increased in November year on year from 17.2% to 17.3%. Growth rates in industrial production as well as in retail sales remain on high levels. Nevertheless, the overlaying downward trend in the industrial production is obviously. The difficulties in the euro zone and its negative consequences for the world economy are showing negative effects in China. Export dynamics is weakening on high levels, affecting directly the industrial production. This confirms our picture of weakening Chinese GDP growth rates in the quarters ahead. We expect a soft landing. For a hard landing a stronger decline in industrial production needs to be seen. The slight increase in retail sales is a positive signal. We stick to our forecast of a GDP growth rate of 8% in 2012.Fri, 09 Dec 2011 00:00:00 +0200The Manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since February 2009. The NBS PMI fell in November sharper than expected from 50.4 to 49.0. The business indicator is now below the expansion level of 50. The 2. estimate of the HSBC PMI got also revised from 48 to 47.7. Against the background of a considerable fall of the new order component, which fell from 50.5 to 47.8, the GDP consensus forecast of 8.5% for 2012 is too optimistic. Beside a weakening export dynamic the troubled Chinese real estate market will be a burden. Over capacity in the housing market is hitting construction investment in the upcoming year. Despite existing growth risks, a hard landing of Chinese GDP growth is unlikely in our view. Inflation pressure is easing. This opens the door for interest rate cuts and a further easing of very restrictive reserve ratios. Yesterday’s announced cut of reserve ratios by 50 basis points is just the opener. Today’s weak Purchasing Manager Index will lead to a cut of the key interest rate in the weeks ahead.Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 +0200 Mon, 07 Nov 2011 07:15:00 +0200 Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:15:00 +0200 Mon, 10 Oct 2011 07:15:00 +0200 Mon, 26 Sep 2011 08:00:00 +0200